Vendster: An Evaluation Arena to Investigate How Forecasting Tool Quality Affects LLM Agent Behaviors in Buyer-Vendor Negotiation
arXiv:2610.38292v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time-series forecasters are ranked almost entirely by accuracy metrics, but a forecast's decision value, its effect on the downstream decision, need not track accuracy and is rarely measured. This problem compounds as large language model (LLM) agents increasingly consume forecasters as tools, mediating them through stochastic, opaque policies. We present Vendster, an evaluation arena measuring how a forecaster's bias and prediction-interval wid…