The Outcome Is Not Evidence: How to Grade a Decision You Will Only Make Once
The Outcome Is Not Evidence: How to Grade a Decision You Will Only Make Once Twenty months ago a company passed on acquiring a small competitor. The competitor was bought by somebody else, grew faster than the model predicted, and is now the reason this quarter's numbers look soft. In the review, the sentence used is: we got that one wrong. The decision may well have been wrong. The outcome does not establish it. A decision made once produces exactly one result, and that result is a single draw…